Friday, May 1, 2009

UPDATE 5/1/09 Swine Flu "Pandemic" or "Unnecessary Panic"

UPDATE 5/1/09

I decided to do my own research in reference to the "unnecessary panic" which I believe is being instigated by WHO and I'll tell you why. According to the CDC's Weekly Influenza Report in which they reported the statistics for five different strains of virus in the United States this flu season, accumulatively there have been 25,925 confirmed cases of influenza. Of the 25,925 cases, only 6,223 were the H1N1 strain (identified as AH1). That leaves 19,702 confirmed cases of other strains of influenza, the highest being Influenza B with a reported 8686 confirmed cases. The CDC reports that there have been 15 cases confirmed in week 15 of their flu season. Influenza B reports 77 just this week. WHO's statistics were slightly higher than that of the CDC and Wikipedia.

The CDC had this to say about the 2008-09 season:
influenza A (H1), A (H3), and B viruses have co-circulated in the United States. Influenza A (H1) viruses have predominated during the season overall, however, the most commonly reported influenza virus has varied by week. From week 40 through week 10 (September 28, 2008 – March 14, 2009) influenza A (H1) viruses were more frequently reported and from weeks 11 through 13 (March 15 – April 4, 2009) more influenza B than influenza A viruses were reported. Since week 14, small numbers of positive influenza specimens have been reported; approximately half of influenza viruses reported nationally have been influenza A viruses and half have been influenza B viruses, but there continues to be variation in the predominant influenza type by region. During week 15, five of the nine surveillance regions reported more influenza A than influenza B viruses.


In actuality, going by the numbers, Influenza B is more than half and in recent weeks only small numbers of positive influenza has been reported indicating that, overall, the influenza "pandemic" is fizzling out. The CDC goes into some detail specifically related to the "swine version" with only a handful of confirmed cases in isolated areas with no deaths reported.

Wikipedia is kind enough to provide us with a chart compiled of statistics of mortality involving twelve countries in an article entitled 2009 Swine Flu Outbreak The overall statistics make the "swine flu" look harder to contract than winning the lottery. Of twelve countries there have only been 521 "laboratory confirmed" cases "World Wide" thus far this year. Suspected or Probable cases reach 4033 (referenced by who? WHO!) There were only thirteen (13) "confirmed" deaths and one-hundred-sixty-eight (168)"suspected" deaths, all but one of those confirmed deaths occurred in Mexico, the other one (1) was here in the United States. In a foot note it is stated "Suspected and probable cases have not been confirmed as being due to this strain of influenza by laboratory tests, although some other strains may have been ruled out".

I don't know why and can't even fathom why "WHO" would cause such a panic (no pun intended). Historically, Wikipedia associates the H1N1 virus with the "Spanish Flu" of 1918 to 1920, noting it was responsible for 40 to 100 million deaths. At that time it was a (5) in the severity index. Wikipedia also has this to say about H1N1:

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1, also known as A(H1N1), is a subtype of influenza virus A and the most common cause of influenza (flu) in humans. Some strains of H1N1 are endemic in humans, including the strain(s) responsible for the 1918 flu pandemic which killed 50–100 million people worldwide. Less virulent H1N1 strains still exist in the wild today, worldwide, causing a small fraction of all influenza-like illness and a large fraction of all seasonal influenza. H1N1 strains caused roughly half of all flu infections in 2006.[1] Other strains of H1N1 are endemic in pigs and in birds.


We are at level 5 now?!? Have we had anywhere near that number of deaths for the H1N1? NO! So why all the hype? Relax people, we just have an outbreak of the flu! And what do they tell us about the flu, get a flu shot, especially the elderly and those with weakened immune systems.

by Elizabeth A. Hall
5/1/2009

Information in this article were obtained by the following sources:
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_01/en/index.html
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak_by_country
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak_by_country#References

0 comments: